The future electricity system requires more than increased power generation

Sweden’s demand for electricity is expected to grow, but exactly how much and where that demand will arise remains uncertain. Meeting the challenges of electrification requires a robust electricity system that can adapt to future needs while making more efficient use of existing resources.

Discussions about Sweden’s future electricity supply often focus on which energy sources should be expanded. But according to Louise Ödlund, Professor and Vice Principal for Research at Linköping University, the debate needs to take a much broader view of the electricity system.

– Expanding electricity generation is important, but it must go hand in hand with electricity grids, flexibility, storage and efficient energy use. Otherwise, we risk making costly investments without delivering benefits to the systems as a whole, she says.

Louise Ödlund calls for more flexible, long-term planning that accounts for different development scenarios. Relying on a single forecast risks creating a system that is difficult to adapt when circumstances change. The challenge also involves two different timeframes: meeting today’s electricity demand before new generation capacity and grid infrastructure are inn place, while simultaneously preparing for future needs.

Electricity demand must guide planning

A significant part of the solution lies with electricity users, according to Lotta Bångens, Secretary general of the Swedish Energy Efficiency Association (Eneff). She believes planning should begin by examining how electricity is actually used, for example in industrial processes or to heat buildings.

– At the moment, we’re doing things somewhat the other way round, she observes.

There is considerable potential to reduce demand, particularly in Sweden’s single-family homes.

According to the Swedish Energy Agency, more efficient electricity use could reduce the country’s electricity demand by up to 25 terawatt-hours by 2030, equivalent to approximately one year’s electricity generation from the three nuclear reactors at Forsmark. Around 15 terawatt-hours of this potential lies within the residential and service sectors, with single-family homes offering the greatest opportunities for savings.

Industrial facilities and tiger buildings also contain equipment that would be financially beneficial to replace but continues to be used. After all, an investment being profitable does not necessarily mean it will be made.

– There is a lot of equipment that would be worth replacing, but it remains in use until it breaks down.

We don’t make decisions based solely on profitability. The purchase price and other preferences also influence our choices, says Lotta Bångens.

Efficiency and flexibility can ease pressure on the grid

To manage current demand, the electricity system needs both to reduce consumption and distribute it more intelligently throughout the day. Energy efficiency means meeting the same needs with less energy, while flexible electricity use involves shifting some consumption to periods when demand on the grid is lower.

Louise Ödlund sees particularly significant opportunities in smoothing out the peaks in power demand that occur when many users consume large amounts of electricity simultaneously.

– It may be possible to change consumption patterns so that all major processes aren’t started at the same time, creating peaks, she says.

The potential to change electricity consumption patterns is there, but support is also needed to turn these opportunities into practical solutions. Individual property owners, for example, cannot be expected to have all the knowledge required to optimise heating, electric vehicle chagrin and other energy-intensive systems themselves.

– It’s not particularly easy for påroperty owners to optimise their own energy systems. I think they could use some help with that, says Louise Ödlund.

For businesses, another crucial factor is ensuring that energy efficiency becomes a management-level priority. The necessary expertise may already exist within an organisation, but without support for investment decisions, implementing changes can be difficult. Costs and savings also need to be evaluated from a longer-term perspective, taking different assumptions about future energy prices into account.

– It’s better to do the calculations and perhaps get them slightly wrong than not to calculate at all. You can test different energy prices and see how they affect the financial case, says Lotta Bångens.

Smarter electricity use could reduce the need for grid expansion

The benefits of energy efficiency extend beyond individual properties and businesses. Reducing electricity consumption in areas where the grid is already under significant pressure can also reduce the need for new power lines.

Lotta Bångens therefore believes grid operators should do more to investigate what measures electricity users could take before deciding to expand network capacity.

– Instead of immediately assuming that a larger power line needs to be built, grid operators could ask: Are there any measures you could take? Could you improve energy efficiency and solve this problem for us? Says Lotta Bångens.

If investments in more efficient electricity use cost less then reinforcing the grid, there also need to be mechanisms that allow grid operators to help finance such measures. One possible approach would be for a grid operator to cover all of part of the cost of replacing heating systems with heat pumps in a residential area of single-family homes.

– But this is a new way of thinking, and probably not the first thing a local grid operator would consider. The traditional approach has been to expand power lines when capacity reaches its limit, says Lotta Bångens.

In her view, investments in the electricity system should increasingly be based on what delivers the greatest overall benefit. Energy efficiency and flexibility should be explored before expanding power generation, or at least for as long as these alternatives remain more cost-effective. Achieving this, however, will require clearer responsibilities and new business models.

Elfack brings together the stakeholders shaping the future electricity system

There are already successful examples of organsiations that have managed to reduce their energy consumption. Yet their experiences are not necessarily shared more widely. Property companies that have implemented effective measures often find themselves explaining their methods to other organisations on an individual basis. Better structures for sharing knowledge and experience are needed if more stakeholders are to benefit.

According to Louise Ödlund, stronger connections between researchers and decision-makers are also essential.

– I would like researchers to work more closely with decisionmakers and have greater opportunities to contribute when political choices are being discussed, she says.

At Elfack, the meeting place organised at Svenska Mässan, Lotta Bånges hopes to see the perspective of electricity users fiven greater prominence in the discussions. She calls for broader dialogue between electricity producers, grid operators and users to build a better understanding of each other’s needs and circumstances.

– I hope electricity suppliers and grid operators become more open to understanding the suer perspective. But we on the user side also need to understand how electricity distribution works, she concludes.

How can we create an electricity system that meets both today’s and tomorrow’s needs? From 11 to 14 May 2027, the electricity, energy and lighting industries will come together at Elfack at Svenska Mässan in Gothenburg. Join the conversation and secure your ticket today.